Study Warns Taiwan Strait Conflict Could Trigger US-China Nuclear Confrontation

A new study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies warns that a military conflict between the United States and China over the Taiwan Strait could escalate rapidly and may even carry the risk of developing into a nuclear confrontation. The report was released on the eve of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, drawing significant attention from the international security community.

According to a report by Reuters, the study found that both the United States and China have expanded their long-range strike capabilities, missile systems, and deployments of critical military infrastructure in recent years.

The report argues that if war were to break out in the Taiwan Strait, both sides would likely target each other’s command-and-control systems, satellite communications networks, radar installations, and military bases. Such “deep-strike operations across the full battlespace” could easily be misinterpreted as preparations for a nuclear attack, creating a dangerous pathway to escalation.

The study specifically notes that the United States and China currently lack the kind of established “guardrails” and mature crisis-communication mechanisms that existed between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

As a result, a miscalculation or misunderstanding during a crisis could cause events to spiral out of control very quickly. Analysts warn that in an era of high-technology warfare, the boundary between conventional war and nuclear war is becoming increasingly blurred.

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Recent moves by Trump

Meanwhile, a series of recent moves by Donald Trump’s administration regarding Taiwan have heightened attention on the future direction of U.S.-China relations.

During talks this month between Trump and Xi Jinping, the Taiwan issue emerged as one of the central topics. Xi reportedly warned that Taiwan is the “most dangerous issue” in U.S.-China relations and that mishandling it could lead to a serious conflict, Reuters reported.

In recent interviews, Trump has also adopted a relatively ambiguous stance on whether to approve a new round of arms sales to Taiwan reportedly worth about US$14 billion. He said that he had not yet made a decision, drawing close attention from both Washington and Taipei.

The Taiwanese government subsequently emphasized publicly that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are an important deterrent for maintaining regional peace and expressed appreciation for Trump’s long-standing support for Taiwan’s security.

However, observers have noted that Trump has increasingly discussed Taiwan in what some describe as transactional terms. He has suggested that arms sales to Taiwan could be linked to broader U.S.-China negotiations and remarked that he would need to “talk to the people running Taiwan.”

Some analysts believe that such ambiguous statements have introduced additional uncertainty into the security situation in the Taiwan Strait.

On the other hand, China’s military has continued to intensify pressure around Taiwan. In recent months, the Chinese military has conducted multiple exercises in areas surrounding the Taiwan Strait, increasing its presence in the airspace and waters near Taiwan.

Taiwan, for its part, maintains that Beijing’s growing military pressure is the real source of instability in the region. Lai Ching-te has stated that Taiwan will not yield to coercion and has expressed gratitude to the United States for helping strengthen Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

Beyond conventional military concerns, nuclear issues have also attracted increasing international attention.

Previous assessments

According to previous assessments by the United States Department of Defense, China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly and could reach approximately 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. At the same time, the United States has been strengthening its strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific region, including deployments of submarines, missile defense systems, and long-range strike capabilities.

Analysts note that the Taiwan issue is dangerous not only because of Taiwan’s own strategic importance but also because it has become a focal point of competition between the world’s two leading powers.

Taiwan is home to one of the world’s most critical semiconductor supply chains, the United States has long maintained support for Taiwan’s security, and China regards “reunification” as a core national interest. Against this backdrop, any military miscalculation, accidental clash, or even a cyberattack could trigger a chain reaction.

Analysts argue that although Washington and Beijing have recently sought to ease tensions in trade and economic relations, the Taiwan issue remains the deepest and most difficult strategic dispute between the two sides. Even if broader relations temporarily improve, the underlying risks in the Taiwan Strait are unlikely to disappear.

International security experts warn that the world is entering a period even more complex than the Cold War. Modern conflicts now involve not only nuclear weapons but also cyber warfare, AI-enabled systems, satellite attacks, drones, and hypersonic missiles. Should a war break out in the Taiwan Strait, its consequences could extend far beyond the region and potentially reshape the global security landscape.